Control measures critical to keeping Canadian COVID-19 deaths under 22,000: health agency

Experts say even with strong public health measures, COVID-19 could kill 44,000 people if around 10 per cent of the population become infected. Xiaoli Li explains the latest national pandemic modelling numbers.

By The Canadian Press

With strong control measures, the federal public health agency projects that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.

The Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable, and it anticipates 500 to 700 deaths by the end of next week.

The agency released modelling data on Thursday morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.

With poor containment measures, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency said.

It said the COVID-19 battle in Canada is still in its early stages but Canada’s numbers of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.

The agency says the fight against the novel coronavirus will likely take many months and require cycles of tighter and weaker controls.

If stringent measures remain in place, the country’s top public health officer predicted the pandemic could cost at least 4,500 lives over its course. Without such controls, models indicate as many as 80 per cent of the population could have been infected, and as many as 350,000 could have died.

“These stark numbers tell us we must do everything we can now to remain in that best-case scenario,” Dr. Theresa Tam said in a sombre presentation. “We must minimize the population infected … in order to keep deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations as low as possible.”

Tam said it appeared the spread of the virus was moderating somewhat and that Canada could bring the epidemic under control by the end of summer if social distancing and other measures in place were strictly adhered to. With spotty controls, we could still be battling the tail end of the pandemic a year from now, she said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commented on the figures released Thursday in his daily press conference, saying it will take months of a continued and determined effort to avoid a COVID-19 worse-case scenario.

He says Canada is at a crossroad and the outcome will depend on how people behave, given there could be ongoing waves of the coronavirus.

He says this means physical distancing is and will be Canada’s new reality until a vaccine is found.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland also said there is no way to know how long the border closure with the U.S. will last.

Freeland says making predictions on what that means for the border is foolhardy in the extreme.

Dr. Tam said keeping Canada’s case load low does depend on what happens in other countries, including the U.S.

Freeland also offered an inspirational message to those who may feel frightened by the projections released Thursday, saying “Information is power and facts are powerful…I would encourage Canadians to feel informed and empowered by that data”

To me, what the numbers show is we are on the right track and it is in our power to achieve that ambitious aspirational target,” Freeland added. “So, turn that very understandable, legitimate fear into power and a conviction that we all need to do this hard thing to get the best outcome for Canadians.”

Several provinces have previously provided their projections. Ontario, for example, has projected between 3,000 and 15,000 residents could die from the pandemic even in a best-case scenario. Quebec has estimated 1,263 to 8,860 deaths by the end of this month, while Alberta has said it’s likely the province would see between 400 and 3,100 deaths, with infections peaking in mid-May.

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